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View Full Version : OnLive: The Future of Video Games Retail?



Chikt
04-07-2009, 08:46 PM
I recently relaunched my blog (http://diomades.blogspot.com/) and decided to do a fairly substantial writeup (http://diomades.blogspot.com/2009/04/onlive-future-of-video-games-retail.html) on something called OnLive (http://www.onlive.com/). Rather than go into all the details, I'll just copy over the writeup on my blog. I think it's something that warrants discussion.

Announced at the Game Developers Conference recently was OnLive; an on-demand videogame service that requires very simple computer hardware to play the best titles at their highest graphical settings for little more than an internet connection and a connection device. The way it works is simple in theory - it's all server-side rendering. Rather than your key presses being registered on your computer, they are sent over the internet to an array of computers which are running the game, and they bounce back video of you moving through that game at said key press. It's like having your keyboard and monitor at home, but your computer tower on the other side of the world.

Frustratingly, however, rather than the discussion of the possibilities and pitfalls of such a system most people are going back to the old tried and true debate of claiming that this system will basically be the end of retail store chains, taking out the middle man in game transactions. I felt that I could write on both matters.

OnLive will not be the end of big retail chains like Gamestop and EBGames. Why? For the same reasons that Netflix was not -and will not be - the end of hard copy Movies. There is a large customer base in both alternatives - many people like the ease of shopping from home with digital downloads, others prefer the malleable ownership and rights that come with purchasing a physical object. But possibly the biggest factor is how flawed the internet itself is.

The world is not yet seeing a wide spread of high speed internet connections as seperate governments drag their heels on improving infrastructure. Slow internet connections means people becomming frustrated with long download times and going for physical media over digital. This is particularly prevailent in international server issues, as well. Any Australian that has tried playing on an American World of Warcraft server will understand the multitude of issues that can arise - from server or client-side lag, to any number of ISP issues (which can happen multipl times over as you connect through so many different servers to connect to the U.S.), and generally slow speed, no matter how fast your internet connection is.

Undoubtedly like World of Warcraft, such a system of networked computers would require down time for servicing. And I would not be surprised if - like World of Warcraft - the OnLive system needed to go down once a week to be checked up on. Imagine if you bought all your games via the OnLive system - you could not play them at specific times, have the issue of lag, random disconnects if you are unlucky, and god only knows what other problems might arise. Of course, that would be until Australian servers were relased, and then the problems would be far less prevailent - but changes little about the fact. The internet is not perfect. Neither are computers. But you can do something about your computer not playing a game well, there's little you can do about the INTERNET not playing your game well.

Which brings me back to my point. There are going to be people out there that will adopt the system undoubtedly. It is a far cheaper, inexpensive option to computer upgrades and servicing so long as you have the internet connection to handle it. But who is OnLive targeted towards, exactly? Considering all the different niche's, I don't believe there's any one niche that OnLive fits except small parts of ALL of them. That might be a good thing and a bad thing, but as the Wii has certainly proven - being a niche product means you sell a lot more of it.

At least you can buy more than PC games at retail.

Karkarov
04-07-2009, 09:38 PM
I have heard of this myself. It seems good on paper but we still have to see. I am not sure it would really work. Regardless of wether they run the games from a server or whatnot it still has to play through some piece of hardware on your screen and that hardware will eventually go obsolete.

Chikt
04-07-2009, 09:39 PM
Regardless of wether they run the games from a server or whatnot it still has to play through some piece of hardware on your screen and that hardware will eventually go obsolete.

Well the whole idea is that it requires hardware no more complicated than that required to watch a Youtube video.

Karkarov
04-08-2009, 08:59 AM
That cant work though. If it is the case you wont be playing the games at anything near their max settings, some maybe not even "normal". It doesnt matter where the game is stored etc, your hardware still has to run it. If it is a low level of hardware most people will still avoid it simply because they cant play cool looking cutting edge games.

Now if you could somehow route it through your pc for example or a console system that might be different. Then the hardware capabilities of the "box" itself would be unimportant.

Chikt
04-08-2009, 09:42 AM
That cant work though. If it is the case you wont be playing the games at anything near their max settings, some maybe not even "normal". It doesnt matter where the game is stored etc, your hardware still has to run it. If it is a low level of hardware most people will still avoid it simply because they cant play cool looking cutting edge games.

Now if you could somehow route it through your pc for example or a console system that might be different. Then the hardware capabilities of the "box" itself would be unimportant.

Not at all (http://www.onlive.com/service/how_onlive_works.html). If it's anything like they say it is, then like the example they used at the GDC - you could run Crysis on an entry level PC.


What if I want to play OnLive on my PC or Mac-what are the minimum specs?
Since the game is running in the OnLive data center, our system requirements are pretty low. All you need is a PC running a current version of Windows XP® or Vista®, or an Intel®-based Mac running a current version of OS X.

Hell, it's all done via BROWSER PLUGIN even. It doesn't require much at all.

Kelven
04-08-2009, 10:20 AM
We actually had something similar in the late 80s up here, called NABU - you dialed in, and the server on the other end handled all the thinking and just sent display information to your machine. Of course, it being the 80s, it was crude and expensive and eventually folded; technology wasn't quite ready for it.

And I don't think we're quite ready now. Maybe in ten years, when LTE and Metropolitan Area Networks have rolled out and we're blanketed in high-bandwidth wireless signals.

It's definitely an interesting idea, though - pay a subscription fee, and never have to worry about computer hardware again. Someone else handles upgrades, system problems, backing up data, etc - you just need to keep your display device running. Maybe in 2020.

Karkarov
04-08-2009, 11:26 AM
For it to work and all calculations done server side it is like Kelven said. I know guys who spent time in Tokyo for example where you could get Fios hookups and this might work there. But where I am the best I can get is low end cable and since it is the only high speed option outside satellite (wont go into those issues) this means everyone uses it. I even know some people where I am who only have satellite or dial up as an option that problem is even more common in the mid US, this would never work for those areas. I am not even sure I could run it.

PS: Dont get me wrong I am not saying this is "bad" or whatever. But I am just not convinced their business idea is marketable right now.

Raziel
04-08-2009, 12:24 PM
A lot of the older 32Bit games can work with Flash nowadays.

Agnarr
04-08-2009, 12:26 PM
Remember WebTV?

Chikt
04-08-2009, 01:39 PM
If it doesn't work this time around, then it will work in the future. But even when it DOES work and works well, I don't see it replacing consoles or the retail industry like so many people are claiming it's going to do.

Karkarov
04-08-2009, 07:31 PM
The retail industry will be replaced sooner or later Diomades. Thats just the evolution of business. One day there will be no yen, dollar, peso, pound, whatever. There will only be one universal form of money. Most transactions will be done remotely over whatever it is the internet turns into. I will rephrase in that for atleast a good long time some things will remain retail regardless. Such as clothing stores or show salesmen. But video games? Food products? General household items? Within the next 50-100 years I would bet money will become almost exclusively online only.

Swerto
04-08-2009, 08:30 PM
I sincerely doubt this is the future.

Taknar
04-08-2009, 11:54 PM
Undoubtedly like World of Warcraft, such a system of networked computers would require down time for servicing. And I would not be surprised if - like World of Warcraft - the OnLive system needed to go down once a week to be checked up on. Imagine if you bought all your games via the OnLive system - you could not play them at specific times, have the issue of lag, random disconnects if you are unlucky, and god only knows what other problems might arise.

MMOs such as World of Warcraft are attempting to maintain a persistent world that has as much uptime as possible within the same session; other games such as single player RPGs and FPSers don't have this requirement. You also don't need a specific server to load up Cloud-variant-for-FFXIX. There is no reason that OnLive would need to have a massive "down day" as the servers could just rotate through a maintanence schedule.

As far as eliminating retail though, you tell me. When was the last time you walked into a store with the specific intent to purchase a music album? HMV, a music store, has in the last 5 years been forced to shift their focus away from music. They have cut the music representation on their floors in half, and filled them with video games, movies, cell phones, and other products. They are surviving, but only as an adaptable business. I feel the same will be true of Gamestop and others. The only differences here between the music and gaming industry that I see are:

1) people don't bitch about how they hear their music; we have fanbois (it caused a shiver down my spine when I typed that)
2) The market for a resold music album is far smaller than that of a video game (which may mean that Gamestop gets hurt two fold by a service such as OnLive)
3) The gamer demographic is far more likely to grab onto the idea of digital downloading and online services than the music listener demographic (I think it's safe to say that a large majority of the music listener demographic that have switched to digital distro are in fact gamers)

I don't think that video game retail stores will become history, but I do think that with a combination of Steam for purchases and OnLive for a subscription model, such stores need to adapt quickly and effectively. Just not too effectively. (http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2009/3/11/)

Karkarov
04-09-2009, 09:50 AM
What are you referring to Swerto? The OnLive service or the suggested long term changes to retail? Personally I think OnLive or something like it will become a mainstay eventually I am just not sure now is that time.

Taknar
04-09-2009, 10:35 AM
Keep in mind that no one really thought it was crazy when Sony said they wanted the Cell processor to do distributed computing so that multiplayer games were using other player's processors to do calculations. Having a data centre properly maintained and dedicated to the calculations is a far more realistic stretch.

In fact, I'd go so far to say that if this was "Sony OnLive" instead of just "OnLive" there would be far fewer objections to the technology. (If it was "Nintendo OnLive" there would just be jokes about it only being available through analog TV signals xD )

Yichimet
04-09-2009, 10:53 AM
The second this is viable I will sign up for it. Nothing makes me angrier at the computer industry than feeling behind the curve for having upgraded my computer in 2006.

Taknar
04-09-2009, 11:30 AM
The second this is viable I will sign up for it. Nothing makes me angrier at the computer industry than feeling behind the curve for having upgraded my computer in 2006.

I know how you feel, but I actually consider that to be one of the drawbacks to such a system as OnLive (although I don't recall if it was being considered in the same market as PC gaming in the first place). With such a service, a user has no control over they quality of the graphics they see. Perhaps getting a better TV or monitor but that's it. The largest advantage to the PC gaming industry by far is the fact that graphics quality is in the hands of the consumer. Within acceptable limitations, if I want to make a game prettier I have that power. In order to duplicate that in the OnLive service the monthly fee would have to be ludicrous, the game prices be rediculously high, or you'd have to pay a seperate fee for upgrading to better quality servers that you connect to. Possibly a combination of the three. I'm not sure that they could work that in such a way as to present an acceptable price model to consumers. It works far better for consoles, where they can release an "update" every few years and it would be the same as moving from PS3 to PS4 (as an example).

Ulroci
04-10-2009, 01:43 PM
In short: I both sincerely doubt and greatly hope that OnLive will not be the future of gaming.